Forecasting COVID-19 using Logistic Regression: Sigmoid-Fitting
Worldwide Trend
Clearly, we have exponential growth. Let’s use a log-scale so we can see the growth of the growth rate.
The fatalities curve seems to just be a shift of the curve for confirmed cases, meaning that mortality rate is almost constant.
Seems that the Mortality Rate peaked at 7% and is retracting back down below
Let’s look at a list of the top 30 countries and their total confirmed cases and fatalities.
Seems every other country has reached the flat end of the curve before reaching a quarter-million infected. The US continues to rise above 1.2 million, however, if you look carefully, you can see that the US’s curve is becoming a line. This means its second-derivative has hit 1.
We see that in terms of fatalities, Europe is more serious than the US right now Let’s look at mortality rate by country
We see that in terms of fatalities, Europe is more serious than the US right now. Let’s look at mortality rate by country, top 30.
Seems as though Belgium, France, UK, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Hungary, and Spain (European countries) have a 10-16% mortality rate. This is is 2-3x as high as the US. Maybe we can look at countries whose mortality rates are low for insight. Though, many of these countries simply do not report/measure fatalities properly.
Either the rates in tropical countries are low which leads to my hypothesis of the negative correlation between COVID-19 spread and temperature, humidity, # hours of daylight, and wind speed. However, it is just as likely, if not more, that these countries simply do not test as widely as the other Western nations.
Clearly, NY has the highest rate. Let’s look at mortality rates.
It’s increased to around 6% (last April 12th update, it was 2%). Let’s look at it by state.
Let’s look at Europe.
Seems that the Northern and Eastern regions are doing better than Western and Southern regions. However, there seems to be a rise in confirmed cases in Russia which has changed from 4/12/2020.
Spain, Italy, Germany, and France are improving with flattened curves. The UK is starting to become linear. However, there is still what seems like exponential growth in the Russia.
Spain, Germany, and France all show a daily growth that is more than that of Italy’s now. UK is also reaching a growth rate comparable to Italy. These 4 nations are potentially more dangerous than Italy. Italy’s rate of new cases has not been increasing since March 21st, most likely due to Lock-Down procedures.
Let’s take a look at Asia.
Forecasting
Here’s the post where I explain Sigmoid-Fitting
